Stakes of the Candidates in Bayelsa’s November 2023 Guber Race

Stakes of the Candidates in Bayelsa's November 2023 Guber Race

Stakes of the Candidates in Bayelsa’s November 2023 Guber Race

In this political analysis, media professional and public affairs analysts, Etete, Enideneze writes on the Stakes of the candidates in the forthcoming Bayelsa’s November 2023 guber race. He looks at chances of the candidates, battle line may be drawn between, running mate and LGA factors.

Sixteen candidates, including two women, and running mates cleared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) are to begin campaigns, May 14, ahead of Bayelsa’s governorship election slated for November 11, this year. Before now, aspirants and their camps were making underground moves to smoothen their the pathway. Key candidates had also stealthily marketed themselves in the mass media even before the formal period allowed for campaigns.

The incumbent governor, Senator Diri, like King of the Jungle, says he deserves a second tenure because he has done well in the first tenure of his administration, especially in infrastructure development and security, and that more projects would come on board if re-elected.

Chief Timipre Sylva, a former governor of the state and an ex-Minister for State, Petroleum in the outgone President Muhammadu Buhari APC-led administration, recanted his earlier public utterance that he would no longer contest for governorship position. Nevertheless, Chief Sylva is back to state’s political jungle.

Chief Sylva is presenting himself as a rebranded political leader. In a media statement after his nomination by the All Progressives Congress, he said that he was more mature, connected and experienced than when he was governor at a younger age.

He added that he has learnt from his past mistakes in governance of the state, and that he would perform better than before, if given a chance to return to the position.

The former governor and his camp have been recounting some infrastructures and programmes he implemented in the state during his five-year tenure, as well as in his recent outing as a minister.

While his fans and some Bayelsans who believe in him are excited, some others have taken Chief Sylva’s new gospel with a pinch of salt, citing problem of insecurity in his era even though he put an outfit, ‘Famu Tamgbe’ in place. Scathing criticisms had trailed the defunct security outfit, especially, on ground of what some Bayelsans alleged as acts of jungle justice.

Alaibe Panel Report is also cited against him. The Alaibe Report was the outcome of an investigation panel set up by the Chief Henry Seriake Dickson administration to probe Chief Sylva’s tenure. The two former governors have never been in good terms. Sylva’s supporters have argued that the report has no impact, describing it as that which was politically motivated. Moreover, that court had given Chief Sylva a clean bill of health in cases that bothered on allegation of phoney projects and amassment of choice property with state-funds.

The APC candidate is also grappling with a perception that his ministerial position did not have much positive impact in the state, in terms of influencing projects to the state, and completing them, even though he facilitated certain projects. In reaction, Sylva’s media handlers and supporters are defending that he influenced some projects to the state.

Another perception is that, as a Minster of State for Petroleum, a juicy position, he did not create opportunities for empowerment of Bayelsans. However, his aides and those in his camp who benefited from him are deflecting the allegation, that the former minister though was not the main minister, empowered a number of Bayelsans, with good political appointments, and that those persons are in turn empowering others.

From Labour Party (LP), Engr. Eradiri is capitalizing on his youthful class and Ijaw Youth Council leadership, and past commissionership stints in Ministry of Environment, and Ministry of Youths and Sports.

He harps that his antecedents in those offices would boost his chance of winning the election. He assures that he would run a youth-friendly administration, tackle environmental disasters and industrialize the state to empower the people.

From his public utterances, he intends to give attention to transformation of Yenagoa, the State Capital, for the benefit of all Bayelsans and residents, generally.

Engr. Eradiri now has peace in his party, as Chief Diekivie Ikiogha, who claimed consensus candidature of the LP, has quitted the race. Feelers indicate that Chief Ikiogha may back Chief Sylva in the general election.

Space might not let me touch all the 16 candidates cleared for the governorship election. Afterall, many of the parties are experimental, and might back candidates of bigger parties. Thus, the key candidates may scheme to woo the other parties to their camps.

For the two female candidates, the fear is that, women rarely vote massively for candidate of their gender, despite their large population. Well, God can catapult anyone to a position.

STAKES OF THE CANDIDATES

In the meantime, the political parties’ and their candidates’ chances of getting the mandate of the people, to bestrode the governorship seat in Creek Haven, or the incumbent’s chances of return, are the brain racking thoughts.

The strife that ensued after Sylva’s nomination was used as one reason he wouldn’t have had a smooth sail in the general election. However, the beef may have been settled hence the party seems poised for a united front to face the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

The APC’s hope for victory in the next governorship election, also seems to motivated by its victorious outing in 2019 gubernatorial election in which its candidate, Chief David Lyon initially won.

However, the circumstances of disaffection in the defunct former Governor Henry Seriake Dickson-led Restoration group in the PDP and Lyon’s charity toga, boosted APC’s fortune in the past governorship election, which was voided by Supreme Court on February 13, 2020.

The new aura appears to be that, the incumbent governor, Senator Douye Diri, may have ingratiated himself to Bayelsans. Thus, some persons believe that Senator Diri’s leadership styles may have disproved many things said against him in the 2019 electioneering, as misconceptions and propaganda against his person. The current perception is that Diri may have merely suffered the circumstances of strife in the defunct Restoration team, as well as reservations some persons had about the defunct Dickson’s administration.

The change in public perception about the person of the incumbent governor resulted from what some persons have seen as the humble, peace-loving, accommodating, prudent and progressive traits in the incumbent and the way his administration is ran with focus.

These are in addition to the physical and human development efforts, prioritization of Civil Servants salaries, continuation of inherited projects, construction of roads and bridges, especially to the three Senatorial Districts, security, empowerment programmes, among others. These efforts may have also buoyed up his political capital, and may boost his chances of retaining the governorship position, even though some may feel otherwise.

Diri’s inclusive governance policy has brought about return of many former members of the PDP. Die-hard members of opposition parties also decamped to the PDP in droves right from inception of the Diri-led administration. The mass defections to the PDP, could also weigh in favour of the incumbent governor’s re-election bid if no cracks emerge in the party. More defections might occur in the weeks or months ahead, albeit, either in favour of one or both PDP and APC.

Already, a topnotch youth from Yenagoa political territory, Comrade Gifted Natus and his fans have ported from APC to PDP. He and his fans were received at the Peace Park, opposite Creek Haven, Yenagoa by the governor, Senator Diri, other top officials of the PDP-led government, officials and members of the party at the Peace Park, opposite Creek Haven, Yenagoa.

Comrade Natus, dubbed as a young philanthropist, has been empowering youths in the state, through cash and in in-kind donations as well as skills acquisition programmes, the most recent of which APC youths, including the party’s social media team also benefited.

According to Gifted, his crossing to PDP with his fans, made him to confirm Senator Diri’s trait of humility and deep interest in human beings. He added that, “for now, Diri is the interest of the people”, adding that, “November 11 governorship election will affirm the people’s interest in the governor”.

Some APC’s social media handlers on one hot WhatsApp group, which comprises bigwigs, candidates, supporters and concerned Bayelsans, say the party was unperturbed by Gifted Natus’ and his fans’ defection to PDP.

The APC social media users made similar statements on Facebook, following news of the defection. They contended that the said defection by Natus and his fans would not affect the party as hyped by the PDP, because there are many other youths set to work the Chief Sylva’s victory in the forthcoming election. Yet, Gifted’s link with Governor Diri is gaining momentum. He recently played host to the governor in London.

Nevertheless, APC youths are optimistic that there are many more good social media practitioners in the party; who will promote the candidature of Chief Sylva.

They are also hopeful that many Bayelsans, including youths would support Sylva, given his antecedents of oversea scholarship, regular electricity supply in and construction of internal roads in Yenagoa City, potable water in parts of the city, construction of internal roads, continuation of five-star hotel project, building of Peace Park and Garden, facilitation of establishment of Nigerian Law School at Agudama-Epie in Yenagoa, bursaries and foreign scholarships. And that, Sylva would re-enact the past strides, as well as embark on new projects for the betterment of the people.

They add that, Sylva as a minister attracted infectious disease hospital to Bayelsa, at Igbogene; ensued commencement of Otabagi Oil Museum, continuation of oil and gas vocational centre at Elebele, all in Ogbia, completion of Local Content Head Office at Swali in Yenagoa, among others.

On their part, members of the PDP, and its social media promoters are projecting that Governor Diri’s achievements, especially security; construction of roads and bridges to link far-flung parts of the state to Yenagoa City was a jinx breaker in the annals of the state.

They are also marketing emotional stability, focus, attentiveness and respect for people as some of Diri’s charisma that would endear him to the electorate.

They are wagging tongues at Yenagoa Central Business District (CBD) and Yenagoa-Opkoma Tunnel, projects they alleged, didn’t come to light.

Stakes of the Candidates in Bayelsa's November 2023 Guber Race

According to the PDP youths, the Igbogene infectious disease hospital wasn’t completed throughout the end of the former minister’s tenure, while some of the other federal projects were commenced by the former President Goodkuck Jonathan’s administration.

From permutations, the battle line may be between the seating governor, Senator Diri and the former governor, Chief Timipre Sylva.

Incumbency factor in the state, and the current aura of positive perception of Senator Diri, may enhance his chance of returning to power.

In a contest of this nature, Sylva’s re-packaged maturity and experience might count, despite any reservations. He really seems reborn; and more financially bouyant to lock horns with an incumbent governor; fire for fire and money for money.

Engr. Eradiri might be one of the ranking candidates. Eradiri has opportunity of being in the youth-bracket, and dynamic enough to sway support from the youths, towards his aspiration.

This much Eradiri has exhibited on radio and social media talkshows where he has been marketing his vast knowledge of professionalism in engineering, environmental matters and administration. He tends to have a good grasp of the issues of development in Yenagoa City and the state, and has the solutions in his finger tips: if words could easily be matched with actions.

Despite his lofty development agendas, some persons feel that Engr. Eradiri is too young to give a serious fight to the PDP and APC candidates. But he rebuffs the critics, and contends that he is biologically and cognitively mature enough, and qualified to contest election and serve as governor.

Eradiri is hoping that his youthfulness could attract mass support from the youths, who though often do not back candidates of their generation.

Whether the LP Third Force experiment would bolster his governorship bid, would be seen in November.

THE BATTLE LINE

All things being equal, the PDP’s and APC’ candidates are the ones to battle for the finishing line.

As usual, Chief Timipre Sylva may also rely on Federal might, especially, with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the helm of affairs, who could say, “go and grab it and bring it”, and “let them go to court if they don’t like it”.

Chief Sylva might not have been President Tinubu’s political son, yet Tinubu may not let him fight an incumbent governor alone. Tinubu might support him in any way to clinch Bayelsa for the APC.

However, given the technological innovations in the electoral process, and voters’ new voting behaviours, Chief Sylva’s complete reliance on federal might, may be a daisy strategy. It had failed him and the APC at the time he he slugged it out with former governor, Senator Henry Seriake Dickson in the 2015 governorship election. Like a battle of two warlords, the contest between the arch opponents, in 2019, stalemated in Southern Ijaw Local Government Area (Silga), with a re-run, and lingering court cases.

But, the scenario might not be exactly the same, even in Silga which Governor Diri is linking with road and bridges to Yenagoa City, same way the other areas, including Ekeremor Local Government, are being linked to Yenagoa, a factor boosting Diri’s political capital.

The schism in the PDP which was ocassioned by G5-Governors and fight against non-zonning of presidential ticket to the South-South, is said to be reaching for a truce, brokered by Chief James Ibori and others. If the information is anything to go by, the resolution of the conflict will likely help Senator Diri’s re-election bid.

CHOICE OF RUNNING MATE AND LGA FACTORS

The choice of running mate is another major factor that will determine the key candidates’ victory.

Chief Sylva’s choice of a dogged ex-Millitant “General’, Chief Joshua Maciver from Southern Ijaw, the candidates favourite stronghold, as his running mate was received with ovation, even though some persons were miffed.

It appears to observers that Sylva would count on ex-Millitants of the Niger Delta. He also facilated the armistice and amnesty granted by the late President Umaru Yar’Adua’s administration to the former millitants.

Indeed, Chief Maciver who recently stepped up his educational status with a first degree in Public Administration from University of Uyo (UNIUYO), Akwa Ibom State, could galvanize support for Sylva.

Maciver has been described by many as a philanthropic person who has helped many youths. At UNIUYO he paid school fees for over fifty students in his department where he later graduated with Second Class Upper grade.

Yet, some Bayelsans feel that Chief Maciver as running mate, or reliance on ex-Millitants might not be a sure-banker for his victory, as the entire electorate would decide who governs the state, given a peaceful atmosphere.

Characteristic of the polarised former millitants class, Governor Diri, and even Engr. Eradiri could also have some ex-Niger Delta Warlords and foot soldiers on their side.

Pundits feel that an Epie-Atissa or an Ekeremor axis running-mate, would have been more useful for Chief Sylva’s gubernatorial project, given the huge votes in the areas.

Comparatively, Diri’s present deputy, Senator Lawrence Ewhrudjakpo, a likeable politician and workaholic, also has a wide support-base across many parts of Bayelsa to add to Senator Diri’s camp.

Ogbia, Silga, Ekeremor, and particularly Yelga will significantly determine who wins the election. Chief Sylva could divide votes in Silga where his running mate belongs, and where he has some fans, same as the other three areas that have high voting figures.

Yet, Senator Diri equally has a burgeoning support base in those areas, which have been the territories of PDP since 1999. Diri could therefore, have good votes in those areas.

Chief Sylva might bank hope on his axis: Nembe, Brass and Ogbia, yet, the PDP, as earlier stated has footing in these areas. If violence does not mare voting, the contest between Sylva and Diri in those places, would be a battle to watch, even though, the former might have home advantage.

Ogbia which has the most voting strength would be the cash cow in Bayelsa East.

In Ekeremor axis, like Southern Ijaw, the two hotbeds of political clashes, where some votes finally do not count at the end of elections, ex-Millitants could hold sway.

Senator Heineken Lopkobiri and former Deputy Governor, Rt. Hon. Peremobowei might also constitute a factor in the success of Diri and Sylva in Ekeremor, besides Sagbama area. Diri’s maternal home is Ekeremor, thus he could have support from that area.

Lokpobiri had had political fisticuffs with Sylva. Unless their beef gets settled, Lokpobiri might not support Sylva’s project, same as Engr. Aganaba of Kokokuma/Opokuma Local Government Area.

Rt. Hon. Ebebi, now in the APC, may back his former boss Sylva, even though they fell apart while in Creek Haven.

Senator Dickson, the Ofuruma Pepe may throw his weigh behind Diri, if no love is actually lost between them. Dickson still has political gusto even in the Western Senatorial District, irrespective of reservations some persons have against him. Dr. (Hon.) Frederick Agbedi from Ekeremor, a House of Rep member and an ally of Diri and Dickson, would also keep his support for the PDP candidate.

Yenagoa Local Government Area (Yelga), especially, Epie-Atissa, host of the state capital, has since 1999 dispensation, often served as the Joker Card to win governorship elections in Bayelsa State, given how elections usually go on peacefully. The area presently has about the highest number of voters, due to population upsurge and emergence of new communities.

There is growing angst that Yelga as a whole has not mounted the seat of governor since 1999.

Ekpetiama Kingdom in Yelga has produced Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Acting Governor and Deputy Governor, all occupied by Chief Werinipre Seibarugu at various times.

However, Epie-Atissa, the core host of the State Capital which has sacrificed its lands and other resources for development, has not been in the power equation of the state. It has never had Speaker, Deputy Speaker, Governor or Deputy Governor. It has a lone voice (one seat) in the House of Assembly, without significant legislative and political power.

Even for the upcoming governorship election in the state, there is no Epie-Atissa gubernatorial candidate or running mate.

The political albatross of Epie-Atissa ethnic group is often attributed to external neglect, despite politicians and electrorates in the area supporting other ethnic groups to clinch power. It is also attributed to lack of internal-unity, pull-him-down syndrome, politics of personal-gains, and politics of absorption.

A school of thought has it that Epie-Atissa person has not seriously worked towards gubernatorial project, neither has the area really projected anyone in collaboration with people of other areas. Yet, it cannot be said that the area has no person(s) suitable for governorship position. Instead, another major problem is lack of organised and wide political leadership that could network with other areas of the state, to clinch power.

With the sentiments brewing in Epie-Atissa, and likely, Yenagoa as a whole, the next governorship election results might be too close to call, between the winner and the first runner-up; as it was in 2019 which though was largely due to military seige and intimidation of voters in a few communities.

This is more so as Engr. Udengs Eradiri who maternally hails from Atissa (Onopa) and paternaly, Agudama-Ekpetiama, could attract sympathy and protest votes from the people.

However, the age-long strong grip on Epie-Atissa by PDP, and even Ekpetiama and Yelga as a whole, might impede vote-swings to Eradiri. Chief Sylva’s links with some Epie-Atissa and Ekpetiama politicians; as well as supporters which APC got in the 2019 governorship election, could also puncture hope of protest-voting.

Although all strata of voters will decide the fate of candidates, youth-factor will have immense influence. As a former governor, Chief Sylva has a youth-support-base, some of whom are jostling to back him.

Yet, Senator Diri also has many youths in his administration, the highest so far, getting some bucks from the government, at least for making ends meet. The youths on the governor’s appointment will work for his victory, all things being equal.

This is aside youth and women empowerment programmes of the administration, which could also buoy up support for the incumbent.

From the look of things, money could play a key role in the election. Many persons, especially the youths, might allow money to control their conscience, instead of allowing their conscience and public interest to determine their support and voting choice.

However, the chances of the candidates will be determined by the entire electorate, given a violent-free and fair electoral process; the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), and if the Prof. Mahmmud Yakubu’s Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) will be neutral. Or if he would no longer be in office to do the undeliverable.

Time and only time shall tell in about six months from now, who among the three key candidates will win the election, come November 11, 2023.

Etete Enideneze, a Media Professional/Public Affairs Analyst, wrote this political analysis, as a follow-up to an article titled The Plots and Intrigues Ahead Bayelsa’s November Governorship Election